It’s dark at 4:30. It’s November but our corner in the pub is warm and cozy. Camp was already in his chair. ‘I closed up early. No Christmas shoppers yet.’

‘According to recent polls, both Trudeau and Biden are dipping ever lower in public opinion and are blamed for everything that’s wrong: Inflation, the culture wars, the homeless and addiction problems, the high mortgage rates, the housing unaffordability which all fall under the economy umbrella. Name any problem and the incumbents are to blame,’ I said.

 ‘Yes, I’ve read the same column. Some of the criticism of Trudeau’s economic record is based on perceptions that don’t match reality. David Coletto, chairman of Abacus Data, points out that Canada’s 3.6 percent inflation rate is well below Germany or France and even the US. Similarly, Biden gets no credit for the significant jobs created under his watch. He is also perceived as too old to be president, even though the other contender is only 3 years younger.’

‘Which goes to show that perception is everything. If you’re framed as an old dottery grampa then it’s hard to change that frame.’

            ‘Inflation and high interest rates are bad for incumbents but the alternative is worse than Trudeau and Biden. We all know about the rabid megalomaniac in the US but Poilievre in Canada is not much better. The first is a nasty liar, cheat and racist, the latter is at best a windsock and at worst a disaster for Canada. He’s an opportunist who has never worked an honest day in his life but he is a savvy social media punter and knows how to attract followers. Not that he has any fresh ideas or visions, far from it. He mostly complains and points out the negatives.’ 

            ‘Next year, over half of the world’s population, over 4 billion people, will be going to the polls,’ I pointed out. ‘India, Indonesia, the US amongst them.’

            ‘Not all these elections will be honest or even fair but the outcomes will determine the fate of much of the world. In the US it will be an un-popularity contests between two old men, basically a rerun of 2020 with even a wider gap between the two camps.’

            ‘From Pakistan to Quebec, from India to the USA, the nationalist populists are on the rise. Everybody wants to close their borders and protect the homeland against foreigners. Just in the past few days the Dutch have given Geert Wilder, an extreme right-wing populist, 35 seats and in Argentina they now have Xavier Milei, another hard right populist.’

‘Many voters are disillusioned with the present administration, here in Canada and in the US where the Democrats are struggling for relevancy. Since Hilary they have wooed the intellectual and educated voters but left behind much of the working class, many of them Hispanic and Black.’

            ‘Maybe Biden will pull a rabbit from his hat, like a new running mate. Maybe even Gavin Newsom, the young, vibrant and popular governor of California.’

            ‘Now there is a good idea Camp. What about here at home. What advice do you have for the Liberals or the New Democrats?’

            ‘I would advise them to get together, as they have in the house of parliament. Together, they can surely defeat the Conservatives. I think a Liberal minority government works best for Canadians.’

            ‘The outcomes of all those polls around the world will determine the future,’ I said. ‘I’m afraid that we’re sliding ever further away from our idealistic, inclusive philosophies towards a darker political and social reality.’

            We both emptied our  beers and just like magic two fresh brews arrived. It was Vicky, our clairvoyant server.

            ‘You’re a ray of sunshine dear,’ Camp enthused.

            ‘And so are you two. I’m glad that some things stay the same,’ Vicky said with a smile.