‘Despite the new U.S. aid package for Ukraine, peace or the end of the war is still far from being in sight,’ I said to Camp who was looking out at the lovely view from our pub on the harbour. ‘The US finally approved a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine. This means that Ukraine at least has another chance to defend itself against the overpowering opponent from the east.’  

‘It’s hopefully not too late. But there is no reason for euphoria. Russia’s economy seems to be resilient despite sanctions; thanks to Chinese and Indian electronics for their war machine and third-party importers for everything else, all paid for with oil shipped out with their dark and rusty ghost fleet. Then there are the casualties on both sides of the war. About 100,000 soldiers are said to have died so far, two-thirds of them on the Russian side. In addition, more than 10,000 civilians were also killed. Second, there are no signs at all that the war, which has been going on for two years now, will end in the foreseeable future.’

‘In Ukraine, according to Sergej Lavrov, the Russians will keep shooting until the country is truly Russian andwants to be part of the Russian world; wants to speak Russian and educate its children as Russians. It doesn’t seem to matter how many soldiers are still to be sacrificed as cannon fodder. Not only Lavrov and Putin want to continue fighting, apparently also the Russian people who approved this regime with 87 percent in their latest sham election.’ 

‘Unlike at the beginning of the war nobody is negotiating anything between Ukraine, the US and Russia. Nor is there any path to end the war but instead there is now talk of a possible collapse of Ukraine,’ Camp said. ‘The West cannot avoid to support Ukraine. This requires a much higher level of commitment from the USA and also from the Europeans than has been the case so far. Maybe enough to get the Russians to back down at least enough to freeze the conflict on the current front and renegotiate after all?’

‘Maybe everybody is holding out until after the US elections with the hope that Trump will then make a quick peace with his friend Putin?’

That would probably be tantamount to a de facto victory for Putin. Give him what he wants. If the western democracies want to prevent this, the world will need to put forward a much greater effort, mostly on the part of the West. The $60 billion that is now being released by the US is only a first step.’

We both paid attention to our mugs and the view.

‘Another side effect of the war are the Russian ocean liners who transport Russian oil without pilots or insurance. They are a ticking timebomb. Bo Mathiesen, head of the Danish pilot company Danish Pilot Service, is worried. More and more often, old decrepit Russian ocean liners with dangerous cargo are sailing through Danish waters without accepting his pilotage service. The Russian ghost fleet, estimated at around 500 ships, is increasingly made up of rust pots that are more than twenty years old. This battered ghost fleet is a direct result of international sanctions.’     

            ‘This sounds like a disaster waiting to happen,’ Camp said. 

            ‘Yes. Ships that are to be scrapped are sailing under new flags, like the uninsured tanker Pablo, now sailing under a flag called Eswatini, the former Swaziland, a landlocked country with no seaport.’            

‘You’re a true ray of sunshine today. Nothing but good news all around,’ Camp said.

            ‘I do have some good news,’ I said.  ‘We will have The Sea Cavalcade back in mid-summer. Its new name is OceanFest. There will be a parade, a swim competition, games and fun for all and plenty of music and food.’

            ‘But no boat blow-up as in days past?’

            ‘Nope, blowing up stuff is not cool any longer and frowned upon by the politically correct and pet sensitive inhabitants of the Sunshine Coast. No fireworks either.’