The US economy used to be left to businesses with little interference from the government and low taxes. That has all changed now. The tariffs are a tax on the consumer since it is the end-user that will pay the surcharges. Also, everybody affected, country or business, will now have to go hat in hand to Washington to ask for leniency. Everybody now has to curry favour with the king. Or as Trump himself put it: They’re all kissing my (fat) ass.’

‘Did you know Camp that Trump got his brilliant tariff idea from an economist by the name of Ron Vara as Rachel Maddow from MSNBC pointed out and Musk since acknowledged. Turns out this so-called expert is a fictional person and an anagram and brainchild of Navarro, one of the president’s most trusted economic advisers. ‘Ride the tariffs to victory’ is one of Ron Vara’s quotes that Trumps adopted. So, the whole tariff mania isn’t even Trump’s own idea. As Rachel pointed out: it doesn’t take a big brain or a big idea to turn the world upside down and inside out.’

When I told this little story to Camp, he almost laughed except it isn’t funny. ‘You heard of Adam Smith? He’s the Scottish philosopher and economist, best known for his 1000-page tome, The Wealth of Nations, written in 1776, the same year the founders of the United States signed the Declaration of Independence in Philadelphia’

‘Yeah, I heard of him but am kind of murky on his achievements,’ I said.

‘He wrote against the dominant worldview of the time, mercantilism. He argued that states should not favor their own industries with the help of tariffs, but that there is no better recipe for prosperity beyond national borders than the free exchange of goods.’

‘Sounds like a reasonable trading philosophy.’

‘You think? The US took his idea to heart and created an international order that focuses on free trade: countries should not enrich themselves at the expense of other countries, but should strive for prosperity together.’

‘And it worked, didn’t it?’

‘For the most part. However, liberalization can be disruptive if not cushioned properly. The US experienced this when they imported goods from countries like Mexico and China duty free and then shifted their manufacturing off-shore, to cheap labour countries, leaving the welfare state to pick up the vacuum in the local labour market.’

‘And now Trump wants to go back and reverse this with his own, simplistic shock therapy by erecting a customs wall around the US. He touts it as the ‘golden age’ for domestic industry, when in fact he is going back to mercantilism of the 18^th century. It’s doomed to failure. His tariffs will seal off the country and remove it from the global value chains. They will reduce the purchasing power of wages and make consumers poorer. It will also harm the rest of the world. He wants to fill the treasury with tariff money but this: make your neighbour a beggar strategy will only produce losers.’

‘To him it’s just a game. Like who blinks first. Certainly not the Chinese,’ I said.

‘All these affected countries will have no choice but to oppose this policy and support the international trade order. Also, nobody will ever trust or like the US again. However, the question of how to counter the rouge Trump administration is tricky, especially when the main culprit sees himself as king and god.’

‘That’s is probably the most disturbing aspect of this trade war. To have an unpredictable gangster, cheater, liar and delusional narcissist at the helm.’

‘Resistance is a must. We, meaning the rest of the world, will have to ban and work together and stick to Adam Smith’s playbook.’

‘Interesting times to say the least. Hard to believe that one man can reset trade, defence and international relationships worse than Covid. Almost like a new cold war.’

‘I wonder if this will affect the price of beer?’ Camp mused.

‘For now, we’re holding the price, since it is locally brewed,’ Vicky said with her usual aplomb, ‘and we’re definitely not selling any US brands. You’re safe here at the pub. Not so sure about the outside world.’  

We both nodded in agreement and concentrated on our brews and the view.