Tag Archives: tariffs

The End of History

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            “Is there a day we don’t have to read about Trump’s latest brainfart, his comic book world view or his most recent firing of a neutral bureaucrat or elimination of a scientific agency that caught his ire because of numbers he doesn’t like or points of view that go against his he-man, world dominion fantasy. He has been given the power by the people, a lockstep congress and the supreme court to throw the whole world into chaos which will have long lasting, negative effects on future generations,” I said rather bothered by it all. I only was able to relax when I had a fresh brew in my hand.

            Camp, my wise and cynical sparring partner didn’t miss his cue and quoted from his ever-present stupid phone. “This is Edward Alden’s blunt assessment of Trump’s torrent of tariffs last week. He is a trade expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. ‘The United States has destroyed the global trade system it created and left nothing in its place but a set of ad hoc arrangements. For trade, the result will be long-term instability that will be bad for business, bad for consumers and bad for global growth.”

            “One of the worst hit is tiny Switzerland with 9 million people but a 39% tariff. Not sure what he doesn’t like about them. Watches, chocolates or maybe he hates yodeling? Laos, Myanmar and Syria are the only 3 countries with higher tariffs. My guess is he doesn’t like the liberal Swiss democracy.”

            “Who would have thought that the US is now everybody’s enemy numero uno? Except for San Salvador whose young dictator, Nayib Bukele, will gladly jail anybody the US expels. Legal or not.”

            “The reality is so bizarre that it’s hard to accept that one man can wield such power to upset the scales of justice, trade and decency. How will history judge this time?”

            “I honestly think that we have reached the end of history, my friend. We are living in a time where reality is turned upside down and inside out. Who will narrate the facts, record the truth, preserve the record? AI? Not anyone I trust anymore. Not the universities who have kissed the ring and bent the knee, not the bureaucrats who are busy rewriting and revising past history, not the politicians who dare not challenge the status quo for fear of losing the next election.”

            “That leaves people like you and me Camp who are witnessing the whole parade and circus from the sidelines.”

“But who will believe two curmudgeons like us? We are neither tiktok influencers nor historians but we can tell a falsehood from a fact, a lie from the truth and a cult from its leader. That’s what we are caught in: a nefarious cult of science deniers, democracy haters, racists, fascists and bullies.”

“It’s sad isn’t it. We grew up in the age of Aquarius with all the fun, colours and music, experiments and tolerance and now we’re living in the age of darkness where nobody laughs, everybody is cynical and the light at the end of the tunnel is indeed a train coming straight on.”

“I guess you could call it the age of Scorpio since we’re talking Zodiac signs.”

“You two are way off the path if I heard you right,” Vicky said when she swapped our empties. “Maybe you don’t need another drink.”

“We’re just goofing around, is all. We’re actually living in the best of times and in the best of places with the best server one could wish for,” Camp said, actually smiling at Vicky.

“That’s better. Think positive. You’ll notice the difference.”

Back to the Future Again

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The US economy used to be left to businesses with little interference from the government and low taxes. That has all changed now. The tariffs are a tax on the consumer since it is the end-user that will pay the surcharges. Also, everybody affected, country or business, will now have to go hat in hand to Washington to ask for leniency. Everybody now has to curry favour with the king. Or as Trump himself put it: They’re all kissing my (fat) ass.’

‘Did you know Camp that Trump got his brilliant tariff idea from an economist by the name of Ron Vara as Rachel Maddow from MSNBC pointed out and Musk since acknowledged. Turns out this so-called expert is a fictional person and an anagram and brainchild of Navarro, one of the president’s most trusted economic advisers. ‘Ride the tariffs to victory’ is one of Ron Vara’s quotes that Trumps adopted. So, the whole tariff mania isn’t even Trump’s own idea. As Rachel pointed out: it doesn’t take a big brain or a big idea to turn the world upside down and inside out.’

When I told this little story to Camp, he almost laughed except it isn’t funny. ‘You heard of Adam Smith? He’s the Scottish philosopher and economist, best known for his 1000-page tome, The Wealth of Nations, written in 1776, the same year the founders of the United States signed the Declaration of Independence in Philadelphia’

‘Yeah, I heard of him but am kind of murky on his achievements,’ I said.

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Goodbye America

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‘What do you think about Trump imposing 25% tariffs across the board including 10% on energy and then giving us a thirty-day grace period in return for a fentanyl Tsar and untold millions to beef up the border security?’ I asked Camp when he sat down. He seemed weary and somewhat off. ‘Are you alright?’ I asked.

‘Yeah, I’m ok but I am worried about anybody in business in Canada that exports and imports across the US border and there are millions of people dependent on our integrated trade that has been a boon for both countries for decades. To answer to your question is quite simple. Trump hates Canada, our way of life, our healthcare system our liberal views, the fact that we have a better primary education system, that we have all the water and oil, the minerals and the landmass, including the gateway to the arctic. As he said after his election. If he can’t annex Canada, he will destroy us by economic means. He’s a misanthrope, a hater of humanity and a bully.’

‘Do you really think a trade war is possible? It would be the consumers on both sides of the border that would pay for it. There would be no winners.’

‘This trade war threat is certainly the worst kind of betrayal of a longstanding partner and friendship. It’s a flagrant and mean-spirited breach of trust and will set the tone for any future collaboration with the US. With one stroke of his golden pen, we are now the enemy, treated worse than any other country, except maybe the other neighbour, Mexico. Why us? I don’t get it,’ I said. 

‘As I pointed out, Trump hates us and everything we stand for and he has imperialist ambitions, right out of Putin’s playbook. What I don’t understand is the deafening silence from the people and the other elected officials; from Congress and the Governors of the States adjacent and integrated with their Canadian counterparts.’

‘This will poison cross border relationships for years to come and it will not make anybody better off.’

‘What about all this talk about fentanyl and migrants crossing into the US from Canada?’ I said. ‘Isn’t it their job to stop drugs and illegals entering their country?’

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Trade Wars

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I love these bright early summer evenings. The tide was going out and I walked along the beach to my usual Thursday meeting with Campbell at ‘Gramma’s Pub’ on our quaint Gibsons harbour. Camp as I’ve called him for years, is my friend and occasional verbal adversary and sparring partner but this time I came with an agenda.

“I’ll trade you seats,” I offered Camp as soon as I sat down, “I think you have the better view.”

“Oh,” he said, taken aback, “that depends on your point of view. Tell you what, I’ll trade seats with you if you pay for the first round, and the one after that.”

“Now is that fair?” I asked, “you not only get to have the better view but now you have free drinks as well.”

“We can always go to a court of arbitration, hoping to get a fair ruling.”

“We’ll ask Vicky, she’ll give us her wise counsel.”

Just at that very moment Vicky was striding over to clean off the table next to us, a perfect time to ask her while she was working.

“Vicky, who do you think has the better seat here?” I asked, “Camp with the frontal water view and the harbour and the island or I with my back in the corner and the view of the whole terrace and a bit of the dock and the water off to the side.”

Without interrupting her chores she said: “Depends what you want to see: The far and serene view of the water, Keats Island and the leisurely boat traffic or the busy circulation of people coming and going, whose drinking what and with whom and how much. I’d say you both have the best seat in the house and I call it even. How about you swap seats every other Thursday.”

“That’s the longest speech I ever heard from Vicky,” Camp said, after she wiped the table with a bit of extra gusto and vanished into the interior of the pub.

“Brilliant solution really.”

“She must have watched the news last night about Trump’s trade wars. Upsetting every ally and apparent friend. What does he hope to gain?”

“Notoriety and longevity,” Camp said.

“How to do you mean?”

“He doesn’t want to be remembered for just a different kind of president, he wants to go down in history for the one who upset the balance of power and brought the world to the edge of the precipice, just to try and bring it back and thereby win the Nobel peace price.”

“Like a poker player? Is it all a bluff?” I asked.

“No, I don’t think so. He has surrounded himself with likeminded people and sycophants who love nothing better but to make history and if it takes a war then what better way then to have a trade war, at least it’s some kind of war. It’s simple hubris.”

“Maybe it’s just a side show and Iran and Korea will be the main feature.”

“Maybe, but he will blame the rest of the world for the uptick in prices and commodities which are sure to follow all these new tariffs. I told you so, he’ll say, they all have it in for us.”

“At least Trudeau stepped up to the plate and called for common sense to prevail,” I said.

“About time, but he only made it to first base, a long way from the home plate.”

“I don’t get it. Everybody will lose, meaning everybody is you and I. If there is a sudden tariff on hops and malt then the price of beer goes up. Very bad news and if for every $ 100 of aluminum the Canadians are charged a $ 25 tariff then that cost gets added on at the production end and passed on to the customer like Boeing and Ford who then roll it on to the consumer.”

“And in retaliation an equal punitive tariff gets imposed on a bottle of Bourbon and a Harley bike, which will put out the Hells Angels, surely a core part of Trump’s base. That will have its own consequences. Might even lead to a world war, sort of like the butterfly effect,” Camp mused.

“That’s Trump for you, chaos theory in action. You think he knows what he is doing?” I asked, shaking my head.

“Does the emperor know he has no clothes, believing he’s wearing the finest and most magnificent cloak?  And did any of his advisers or his loyal legions of admirers tell him that? No, it was a little boy that cried out: “But he has no clothes.”

“Who has no clothes,” Vicky, who just appeared at the perfect moment, asked surprised, “you two naughty boys having indecent thoughts?”

“No, not at all,” Camp cried out, throwing up his hands and laughing, “we’re just picturing Trump appearing naked on Fox News while everybody claps and applauds his fantastic new outfit.”

“I think you two maybe need something stronger than beer, how about a shot of Jim Bean, I hear the price is going up.”